by Peter Silvester February News Brief

The extraordinary series of events that unfolded in Washington DC unsettled to some extent the goodwill that traditionally accompanies a new year. They also brought back to the surface some of the uncertainty that had accompanied us for much of 2020. The myopic focus of the media, and many of us, drowned out what was happening in the rest of the world. There was not much room for good news, or any other news for that matter.

Let me start with our good news. Petrina is back in the Utah office after a trip that she took to Kenya with her 11 year-old daughter Ella. She brought back a first-hand account of international travel: airports, Covid tests and airplanes. She did not bring back a virus or take one with her for that matter.  Also, we have already had several safaris with guests which have given us a chance to practice the protocols of our “Covid-free bubbles.” 
Although it requires another meticulous layer of planning to a safari it does not impact the trip.  Once in the field and in the “bubble,” the sense of excitement and freedom is very special, more so because of the environment of fear that is the backdrop one leaves behind. To say a safari is better than ever right now is an understatement. It feels so good to be in the bush.

We are excited and encouraged by a recent rush of bookings for next year and 2023. There are those coming on safari this year who were unable to come last year. We are sure it will be worth the wait and the outlook for international travel for the summer and beyond is looking brighter.
 This has been helped by early results showing how effectively vaccines reverse the mortality rates even after the first dose. Recent studies have also shown that the vaccine can reduce transmission. A drop in the effectiveness of the vaccine still translates to the vaccine dramatically reducing the severity of the virus and the transmission of it even if one were to contract it. This has helped mitigate some of the early concern of more virulent strains.

There has been little news from the African continent about Covid and we do get a number of questions. Pleading guilty to that same myopia I criticized above, I am going to focus this news piece with a closer look at the course of the pandemic in Africa and some of the reasons that may be giving us such a different view. I first need to qualify that when I say “Africa,” I mean the countries in which we live and operate safaris. Not the 54 sovereign nations and over 1000 languages that would be a more accurate use for the collective word. In this instance, much of what I am saying applies to the best of our knowledge elsewhere. I will continue with the generalization in the interests of brevity.
I am reminded of a statement I made several months ago that Covid predictions and opinions are for fools. I proceed with that in mind, yet we must try to tell this as we see it. First-hand is the kind of news we all deserve to hear.

On the ground one could be forgiven for thinking things are already back to normal.
There are of course those that are being affected, and in some areas it has been worse than others. The impact on businesses has been very difficult, particularly in the important economic multiplier of the tourism and hospitality sector.  However, the resilience is equally remarkable and the conservation sector has rallied with help from both governments and donors. It will take time to understand the full effects.

As this different pattern started to emerge, we speculated as to the reasons that we were not getting the same numbers and reaction. We remained concerned that perhaps it was still to come. We continued to communicate daily with crews, friends and partners, each of us collecting all the pieces we could and staying connected. We are no strangers to mainstream news being unreliable. We are used to judging what is going on in an area by reports from the ground. Between us, there is a pretty extensive first-hand network and communications are pretty good. If things were bad or getting bad, we are certain we would hear.

For some countries there are official numbers, while others, like Tanzania, abandoned any attempt at reporting numbers in March. Where there are numbers, they confirm what we are hearing on the ground. Mortality rates are low as a percentage of tests and the positivity rate high. To date, Kenya with over 100,000 confirmed cases on a million tests, has a total mortality since March 2020 of 1,744 people – around 0.2% if my math is right, more similar to the flu in the developed world.

There are likely to be many reasons why this is the case, and they may not have anything to do with travel restrictions, curfews, hand washing, wearing masks and social distancing. It could be under-reporting. These figures are only the recorded cases and certainly testing has not been extensive. However, the mortality rates are a fraction of the confirmed cases and if a large number of deaths were happening, this would be something we would hear. Furthermore, a recent study that used antibody testing has shown that 1 in 3 people in Nairobi has had the virus which suggests that the virus has been far more widespread than official figures suggest.
It is apparent that something is different to the challenges and mortality that we have seen in much of the developed world. The areas we operate in seem to be escaping the worst physical ravages of this disease.

It could be demographics. Africa has the world’s youngest population with a median age of 18, compared to North America which has an average age of 35 or Europe which has an average age of 42. The majority of its population is also still rural and its biggest cities are comparatively small, unlike Brazil, for example.

It could also be health. Immune systems are much more robust and there are fewer pre-existing conditions in Africa. As documented, a less well-developed health care system means less pharmaceutical intervention, although sadly it means less people survive with a life-threatening illness. Though it may also have much to do with the benefits of subsistence, more organic agriculture, without the additives, antibiotics and preservatives embedded in our food.

Fast food has arrived. However, it is still a middle-class luxury that is not available outside urban centers and completely absent in many countries.  Perhaps there should be a study on the number of fast food outlets and the severity of Covid symptoms. From what we can see the answer must lie in a combination of demographics, genetics, and stronger immune systems.

There will no doubt be more twists and turns, particularly as scientists continue find out more about the variants. It has been a rollercoaster and one that we will continue to ride with you.

By way of perspective, Michael Lorentz’s must watch video in his trilogy, Drylands, takes us on a journey to some of the drier parts of the continent. It starts with beautiful scenes shot in Ethiopia on previous Royal African trips. There are some beautiful images of the rock churches which a few of us have had the good fortune to visit. In the vacuum of the global shut down, a war broke out in Tigray that left tens of thousands massacred and some of those thousand-year-old churches, burned, looted, and destroyed. The neatly stacked recent harvest of teff, food for literally millions of people over the next year, stolen and burnt. It is a tragedy for which the details are still very scarce and the horror of it so hard to process.

We must not forget how important it is to see and experience things first-hand. For those of us that are able and have the privilege to do so, our travel choices should be made with purpose.

We look forward to staying in touch and hope that you are all staying safe and well as this next chapter unfolds.